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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd