Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
