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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still